A Stopped Clock…

 

 

 

Trader Scott’s Market Blog

September 5, 2016

I don’t mean to pick on King World News, I’m sure that many of the guests are nice folks. And I absolutely will not pick on analysts/writers/etc., who are providing a free service. But when the public is being fleeced by the perpetually wrong scaremongers, nice people or not, I, and a few others, will continue to shine a light on their toxic “advice”.

This article shown below is just basically repeating what we have heard from this crowd for, um, at this point I’ve lost track how long. There is always another “reason/excuse” why gold is about to soar. This time it’s Deutsche Bank. And just for good measure, the scaremongers always throw in the handy Comex default theory. And something regarding China is always a good “reason”.
So do you actually want to keep your wits about you? – and make lots of money, (with some losses along the way, of course, since we’re talking about markets here, not about certainties).

And you can then use your net profits in any way that you wish. Or are you going to let your emotions continue to dominate your rational side, and guarantee continued confusion and poor performance? It’s your choice.

And my general view of gold, as repeated numerous times on this site, is/was the following: 2015 will be the bottoming year; the gold market has been under accumulation since April 2013; the bottoming/accumulation process will continue in 2016 with a continually increasing recognition of that bottom (a slow moving UPTREND with some violent surges to mark the shorter term tops and bottoms); 2017 is when the next very powerful leg begins to dominate, with buy stops triggered and follow throughs on a sustained basis (unlike now); and that late next year we will begin to contemplate the testing and retesting process of the all time high of 9/6/2011 of $1922. And I have clear and distinct “reasons” for my view which I understand completely. Could I be wrong? Of course, but that’s what markets are about.

And lastly from the article – the last paragraph:

This shocker (MAY) create massive surge in gold.

And just as gold jumped 15 percent in British pounds on the night of the Brexit shocker, we (MAY) see something similar occur if an election shocker takes place in the United States. And I think gold is the perfect hedge to take advantage of the very real possibility of Trump being elected.”
Why do we constantly have to deal with the word “may” in markets? “May” also implies “may not”. So that headline could alternatively read:This shocker (MAY NOT) create massive surge in gold. And how in the world does that help me? Can someone explain it to me, ’cause I’m stumped?

Surprise Shocker And China’s Latest Move Will Create An Upside Explosion In The Price Of Gold

September 05, 2016 King World News

Today a legend who was asked by the Chinese government to give a speech to government officials in China spoke withKing World News about a surprise shocker andChina’s latest moves and that willcreate an upside explosion in the price of gold.

Eric King: “John, I know you are connected at the highest levels, what about this Deutsche Bank situation and their failure to deliver gold?”

John Ing: “That situation has been looming for some time now. Deutsche Bank had discussions with Commerzbank — that was a case of show and tell. Well, when talks broke off, one of both of them had surprises when they lifted their skirts. But this situation is not surprising, particularly given the large derivative bank that Deutsche Bank possesses…

John Ing continues: “People are not aware of this, but for years now Deutsche Bank has been scrambling for physical gold. We have also seen Germany itself repatriating its gold from New York. But the underlying reality right now is that the physical market for gold is very, very tight.

We now have another factor at work and that is the October referendum in Italy, whereby the oldest bank in Italy and the third largest could be affected by the government wanting to introduce bail-in provisions. This will be yet another catalyst for a sustained upside move in the price of gold this fall.

‘Enter The Dragon’

Here is the third key factor at work in the gold market: ‘Enter the Dragon,’ which is China. China is the largest producer of gold in the world. And as of two years ago, China also became the largest consumer of gold. And at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, something like 2,500 tonnes of physical gold has been taken off the Shanghai futures exchange. When people do that on the Comex, they just get rolled over into paper the next month.

You also have the People’s Bank of China acknowledging that they now have 1,823 tonnes of gold, which is up from 600 tonnes, Eric, in 2003. That’s a whopping 200 percent increase, and that’s just what they are disclosing to us.

15 Chinese Banks Possess A Staggering $100 Billion Of Gold

15 Chinese banks are now allowed to buy and import gold. And it has been calculated from looking at the financial statements that these 15 banks have close to a staggering $100 billion of gold (roughly 2,500 tonnes of gold). We don’t know if they are holding storing this gold for their own clients or the government of China.What we do know is that the Chinese have become very, very sophisticated in their physical gold purchases. We also know that the largest Chinese bank in the world, ICBC, has acquired from Deutsche Bank just a few months ago the 5,000 tonne vault in London. That 5,000 tonne vault will obviously store an enormous gold hoard.

China Now Has The Largest Strategic Oil Supply In The World

China also has the largest strategic oil supply in the world. Yes, it is larger than the United States and they accomplished that in less than two years.But circling back to China and their massive gold accumulation, what is important to note here, Eric, is that all of China’s gold reserves will be exhausted by 2020. That’s only a few years away. So the Chinese will dominate the physical gold market not only in the months to come, but years to come because of their dwindling mine supply.

And remember, Eric, that the Chinese had already previously purchased a 2,500 tonne vault and they are building another vault in Shenzhen. China would not be purchasing these vaults unless they had a use for them. This proves what I have been saying for some time now — that China will continue to vacuum up all of the available supply of gold on the market.

This ShockerMay Create MassiveSurge In The Price Of Gold

And just as gold jumped 15 percent in British pounds on the night of the Brexit shocker, we may see something similar occur if an election shockertakes place in the United States. And I think gold is the perfect hedge to take advantage ofthe very real possibility of Trump being elected.”


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'Trader Scott – A Stopped Clock… – September 5, 2016' have 3 comments

  1. September 6, 2016 @ 1:36 am Michael Harvey

    Scott
    I read all the articles put out by the gold bugs, and say yes maybe you have a point, however, the ponzi scheme by governments can go on as long as tghey want it to. It will take mass loss of confidence by the populace to bring gold into real focus, until then I am long no matter what with a $1900 target as my selling point.
    We live in a very uncertain world and we are all living on the ‘edge’ and eventually things will snap big time-when is not for me to say.
    Keep up the good work
    Regards

    Reply

    • September 6, 2016 @ 12:37 pm traderscott

      Hey Michael. You have more confidence than I that THEIR ponzi scheme can go on as long as they want it to. It’s all about confidence in the “power” of central banking. If we could chart that confidence level, it would look like a massive DISTRIBUTION top. But we can’t. However, we can watch the global sovereign bond markets. That’s the “telltale” sign. When that massive supply finally overtakes demand on a very long term basis, governments/central banks will be powerless to stop it, they will only be able to slow it down.
      And I have given some time frames in the blog when I believe these events will slowly begin to show.
      And it warms my heart to see someone with an actual plan to take profits, Rightly or wrongly in the long term, $1900 (near the all time highs) is an excellent place to consider lightening up – if we get there, which I do believe Michael.

      Reply

      • September 6, 2016 @ 1:23 pm Michael Harvey

        Scott
        My thinking on the $1900 level is based on the fact that we got there in September 2011 with the headline – ‘Gold hits new high as fear stalks financial markets’. Global sovereign bond markets among other scenarios such as failing banks and negative interest ratesmay well be the ‘Black Swans’ that become the tipping points for the Central (W)Bankers. This time round no amount of monetary extremism will rescue the situation and from then on in it will be an almighty panic to safety.
        In Europe we are seeing a shift to the right wing parties due to lack of confidence in current day governments and the currency in our pockets only maintains its value as long as we have confidence in our governments.
        Kind Regards
        Mike Harvey
        Resident in Ireland
        PS. God Bless America – neither candidates running for office will be able to rescue America from a standard not based on the dollar?

        Reply


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