Crude Oil, The Seeds for a New Bull Market
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
October 14, 2016
We can usually count on academics to be completely wrong about markets. And while virtually every academic has a higher IQ than I do (granted, that’s not saying much), when it comes to markets smart is often dumb. The great Tom Baldwin said this about markets: “You don’t need any education at all to do it. The smarter you are the dumber you are.” So when I read articles like this one, about an academic “calling”/predicting that oil prices may (a basically useless word when used about markets) remain low for 20 years, it just continues to make me more convinced crude is in a major bottoming formation – accumulation/weak hands to strong hands. I was quite bearish on crude oil for a few years, as explained here. And although I do expect to see this bottoming process in crude to be quite extended, my belief is still that commodities put in a long term bottom in the Spring. But, for crude oil in particular, that is in the long term time frame. But I am quite concerned about crude currently, and I do expect a retest (with a higher low) of the February 11 major low of $26 – with a time frame similar to that low, but into next year. But articles such as the previously discussed one, are sowing the seeds for a very bullish 2017 – 2020, we just need to get thru a (likely volatile) retest of the major low.
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.