Trump v. Clinton
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
October 14, 2016
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While there’s not exactly a big demand for my expertise in political matters, there are a few things about this election of which I am confident. But first, although I’m not going to espouse any political ideology, my own is basically a hippie libertarian on social matters with a true entrepreneurial capitalist economic view. But there is no Dr. Ron Paul this time and the Libertarian Gary Johnson is a disappointment. So we’re stuck with these two. The best thing Trump has going for him is the panic, hatred and desperation from the globalist, elitist neocons regarding a Trump presidency. So “they” are trying every trick to keep Trump out – rigging polls, talking up the great economy, scaring people about what his Presidency would look like, etc. But what “they” and “their” MSM are failing to understand and also underestimating, is the mood of the people around the globe. They are missing the forest for the trees. It’s not about Trump, he’s just the figurehead. It could have been any outsider (not that Trump is a true outsider, but perception is reality). And the key is the masses want an outsider. We’ve had the outsider thing globally over the years, but the levels of passion were not there yet. And also, the anger by the masses in the old order was still not to the level where it could “trump” the fear we humans have for change. But that time is arriving. So the more that clowns like the Bushes and the Paul Ryans of the world bash Trump, the more “faith” the masses have in a “Trump”. This post discusses a lot of the other global phenomena going on, like Brexit, which ties into all of this.
The globalists were not too pleased with Nixon, Carter and Reagan, but they have had their puppets/yes-men in there for a long time – from Bush 1, Clinton 1, Bush 2, Obama 1 (I’m praying for no Obama 2), and now their latest project/puppette/yes-person Clinton 2. (And I’m also praying for no Clinton 3.) Side note – why won’t those disgusting, smelly Bushes and Clintons go crawl in their rotting mansions, with their billions in filthy lucre stolen from so many of the wonderful/decent people of the world – and just leave us alone!
The masses are ready for true change, not the phony slogans about change. Slogans like Clinton 1 (1992) – “For People, for a Change” and “It’s Time to Change America”, Obama (2008) – “Change We Can Believe In” or Clinton 2? (2012) – “Ready for Change, Ready to Lead”. What a bunch of horse manure – the only change has been for the elitists to get stronger, richer and more powerful, and the reverse for the masses. So now the masses are completely apathetic to slogans and promises, and furious about the disregard which politicians have shown to them. And now we want to change the old order. This election is a test as to whether we have reached that all important critical mass yet. But regardless, the trend is now in place for one of the most important harbingers of our future. And that trend is the loss of confidence in all of the old institutions, which have been built up by the globalists over many, many decades.
So for the very, very big picture view of where yields are headed and how profoundly economics and the world will change as a result of the next many, many years of Government Bond market revulsion, please view the attached chart below (courtesy of Jim Bianco). It shows the very, very big picture history of United States long term bond yields.You can see that for 100 years from the 1842 high we were in a downtrend in yields, punctuated by several multi-year moves back higher in yields. In general notice that the bigger, longer pushes higher in yields were predated by a long bottoming process (like what is happening currently). But from the approximately 10 year bottoming process in the 1940’s, yields absolutely soared up to the peak of 15.21 % on October 26, 1981 .And I believe we are in for many decades of higher yields, including a break above the 1981 peak of 15.21% on the long Treasury. as that surge in yields (on a very long term basis) is a harbinger of what’s to come. Meaning persistent inflation, currency turmoil, eventual end to the US$ reserve status, massive market volatility, and tremendous opportunities to make (and lose) money. But the importance of the 35 year falling/low yield environment can not be overstated. Because it has been the soothing, opiate-like effects of those low yields combined with our addiction to debt (personal/government/corporate) , which has allowed things to extend for so long. That is soon to change.
I keep hearing about this chart of the stock market allegedly showing a huge bubble top (which I completely disagree with). But it’s really this chart of the bond market (actually the inverted yield chart) which scares me to death. It is a massive area of distribution/topping process (inverted) in the price of the long term Treasury Bond which has been ongoing for at least eight years. It’s that bond chart which has the potential to be the complete destroyer of globalism, economies, modern central banking, governments, and will change all of our lives profoundly. It will be a true supernova event when government bond yields start their relentless push higher for many, many years. So, while I have no clue who the President will be, I am confident that the humongous topping process in Government bond yields around the globe, combined with the insanity of central bankers and the total loss in confidence by the masses, will destroy the old order which “they” are so proud of themselves about. And as to the individual policies which Trump and Clinton claim they will implement, I don’t even listen to them. I don’t believe what they say anyways. And besides, the fate of the world is basically in the hands of the trillions of dollars, euros, etc. in global bond markets, and the infinite (basically) amounts in derivatives. Neither Trump nor Clinton can do anything about that.
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.
October 14, 2016 @ 5:00 pm Aamer
Agree that bond yields will be rising in the years to come…but don’t you think that we are first likely to get negative rates in the US before any rise ? Also what are your thoughts on which country one should first short their sovereign bonds ? Japan ? Or Germany ….France…Spain….Switzerland….and the list is almost endless .
What will be the catalyst for this trade to get the the right risk / reward balance ?
Have a great weekend,
October 16, 2016 @ 10:26 am traderscott
At this blog, we’re trying to anticipate the catalysts for all trades/investments, by entering at the “ideal” price/time. That is the catalyst, so to speak, if that makes sense. Do you know how many people have been killed shorting government bonds over the last 30+ years. I have not once advised doing that (except for traders). The shelf life in bonds, I believe is no more than 12 months. And yes, the list is endless, but the morons who went negative yields are the best bets first. No, as I’ve stated, I don’t believe the US will do negative rates.
November 21, 2016 @ 7:10 pm Scott
Thanks for your efforts. They are very helpful!
November 21, 2016 @ 9:58 pm traderscott