The Ugly Economy



Trader Scott’s Market Blog

October 29, 2016



For many years, especially in regards to the stock market, I have vehemently disagreed with the folks who have claimed the stock market is a huge bubble and will therefore (soon) crash. The people who have been claiming that since 2009 have been spectacularly wrong. (It doesn’t mean I’m bullish on stocks currently.) These stock market bears (mostly permabears) have rested their crash thesis on the belief in a horrific economic “recovery” and worse economic conditions down the line. I completely agree about the economy, but economics does not equal markets. I have believed for years the horrible economy is one of the best things stocks had going for them. And the (often fraudulent) earnings reports from companies would drag the market lower is another claim. So, for many years all of those claims have not happened. But, to me, everything in markets is about timing. It is my main focus. So, many of the permabears will soon be getting their wish, but unlikely a crash – more of a grind lower. The market is finally now in a weak enough position to where “bad news” will lead to selling. So here is an article from Zero Hedge which discusses the very negative viewpoint of the economy from companies around the globe. And, mind you, this is with interest rates at the lowest in history. 




img_0074bwcrsmTrader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.

'Trader Scott’s Market Blog – The Ugly Economy – October 29, 2016' have 2 comments

  1. October 30, 2016 @ 6:14 pm Aamer

    Hi scott,

    Could you envisage a scenario where US equity mkts , after a brief and perhaps even sharp sell off ….take off to the upside due to capital flows from rest of world and also from the imploding bond mkts…..before a possible final collapse in a few years from now ? Mkts do t usually all collapse at once and capital needs to find a parking spot….and also returns.

    Any deep thoughts and throw of the dice speculation is appreciated.

    Thank you as usual for your insights and patience.



    • October 31, 2016 @ 10:45 am traderscott

      Yes Aamer, there are going to be great long side opportunities in global equities. There are some great support areas below stock markets. But until I see the strong hands come back in a huge way, I will continue to believe they will be trading/not investing entry points. Let’s allow this to start playing out. There is going to be massive volatility. I don’t believe there is any way the final collapse is only a few years from now. The bond market will take decades to play out – way higher yields.


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