Market Update for March 16, 2016
First I’d like to say, that if I provide any service to the listeners of Real World, it is to give you a heads up about markets, so that you can buy near the lows and sell near the highs, as that is the whole basis for why I’m even involved in markets. Meaning that you’re catching the turning points, which is the hardest thing to accomplish in markets. And if I were not able to consistently achieve that goal, then I’d be restocking shelves at Piggly Wiggly.
My emails are actually stating exactly what I’m doing with my own money. And I once again want to get folks’ perspective on the markets to change. Markets are nothing more than a huge arena to place bets. That’s it.
You need to understand 4 concepts to ever be successful in markets —
risk, probabilities, the trend of the market and supply and demand. Absolutely nothing else matters.
Those 4 concepts are the basis for all of the work that I do with markets.
And for the folks asking about charts – they are for one purpose only – to glean what the supply and demand situation is. This can only be accomplished by truly understanding the interaction between price AND VOLUME. You can then follow the market going from weak hands to strong hands and visa versa.
This skill set takes many years to learn. Without this skill set, charts are almost useless. And this knowledge isas close to a crystal ball that you’ll ever get.
As for gold, in the Dec. 9, 2015 outlook, I recommended buying gold right into the lows at around $1050. And this was my first long term gold purchase, not just as a trade, in 7 years.any further rally from here will likely be a short term top. However, as I monotonously stated on the show for over 4 years, gold would not bottom until Sep. 2015, that bottom process will take about 6 months, and we will be in a major bull market by the 2nd quarter of 2016. There will be scary selloffs going forward, but they are now buying opportunities. Do not buy into strength. Mining stocks, silver and numismatics will far outperform gold itself in the next leg up. Be cautious on gold short term, small possibility of a new low, but I’m using selling waves to buy. But by mid April, we should usher in the most sustained rally in gold since 2011. And silver, while still at risk for new lows, should be in a bull market within 7 months, and yes many years down the road $100 silver.
And on stocks – in the Jan. 27 outlook, just as the crowd had gotten super bearish and were foolishly going short, I recommended covering short positions and going long for a powerful bear market rally right into the Fed meeting in mid-March. Well, that’s what happened and guess what. Now everyone’s bullish again and the worst is over and it’s time to buy stocks. I adamantly disagree. I am once again looking to reenter short positions, as volatility will explode. The next leg down is going to be the biggest drop yet. However, keep in mind that eventually stocks, precious metals and commodities will all benefit from the powerful bear market in bonds.
And yes, the Fed will raise rates again. Bond yields are in a humongous bottoming process. Short term rates higher first, followed by long term rates with a lag. And a heads up – you’re going to be hearing more and more about inflation. As, I’ve continually stated, the commodity bear market will end this quarter. Expect a big rally this summer, and one more selling wave this fall, as the dollar has one more rally to new highs. However, inflation will shock folks by its sudden reemergence. Don’t be one of those people. Be prepared.
I enjoy my communications with the listeners. Contact me if I can help. [email protected]