Cold As Ice – Agriculture Update
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
October 15, 2016
Gold is a market which I am wildly bullish on long term and the same holds true for agriculture. And this is an update to an ongoing series explaining my bullishness about agriculture. I have several times talked about buying RJA in March, and about adding on into weakness after the initial surge into July. RJA has had a bit of a rally recently, so be patient and only buy into weakness. There’s a long post here from July about agriculture. Also included here is another global warming hoax exposed. Global cooling anyone? Lastly there is a chronicling of posts and comments and also there are some very long term updated charts (all below). I do believe that agriculture is in a massive area of ACCUMULATION/bottoming process.
January post: “After this brutal bear market in commodities over the last 5 years, there can’t be more than 10 people on this planet that are still bullish. However, over the next 60 days, I expect many commodities to have hit their major lows for this cycle. I’m becoming especially bullish on agriculture. And although I personally don’t eat grains, any selloff into the March time frame is a tremendous buying opportunity. Food prices are set to soar beginning in 2017.”
And from March: “And a heads up – you’re going to be hearing more and more about inflation. As I’ve continually stated, the commodity bear market will end this quarter. Expect a big rally this summer, and one more selling wave this fall, as the dollar has one more rally to new highs. However, inflation will shock folks by its sudden reemergence. Don’t be one of those people. Be prepared.”
From April: “On to markets – from 2011 while the US Dollar permabears kept claiming that commodities were going to soar, the exact opposite happened. During this time, I repeated continuously that commodities were in a major bear market and wouldn’t bottom until March 2016. And it’s almost like the boys are listening to theReal World of Money,because right on cue, one commodity after another has bottomed right on schedule and are beginning to spike higher. Agriculture, especially, is extremely bullish. And full disclosure, I own an agriculture ETF (symbol RJA). However, expect another selloff in commodities later this year, which would be the next great buying opportunity.”
About
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.
'Trader Scott’s Market Blog – Cold As Ice – Agriculture Update – October 15, 2016' have 4 comments
October 17, 2016 @ 6:29 pm Aamer
Hi Scott,
Can you clarify when and why the next sell off in commodities ? And wil it be across the board including oil ….?
Also would like to know a little more about your views on nat gas ? It’s gone up quite nicely for the past 2 months….what targets do you have in mind and what time frame ?
Is there an equity related instrument for rice and soybeans ? I know the ETFs for wheat and corn.
Thank you as usual for your insights.
Best,
Aamer
October 18, 2016 @ 11:54 am traderscott
Commodities will get dragged into a resetting of the complacency Aamer. And it will likely be across the board and especially oil. But I would use that opportunity to become more aggressive with agriculture, as I do believe agriculture will be bottoming (has bottomed) before crude has its’ successful retest of the major bottom. In any case, I will be using volatility and weirdness to accumulate RJA and PMs, especially beginning next month. Oil later on.
As for nat gas, I would NOT buy now, but severe weakness is a great opportunity, but no specific time frames. Right now it’s not remotely close to buy areas. But I am extremely bullish on it long term.
SOYB is a soy ETF. No rice ETF that I am aware of.
October 17, 2016 @ 6:32 pm Aamer
Re inflation….when should one start looking to short bond mkts globally ? If you are right about Japanese and European banks….which I believe is correct….shorting Germany…UK, France….japanetc should be a home run albeit volatile one.
Thanks,
Aamer
October 17, 2016 @ 7:35 pm traderscott
Aamer, I believe the rising interest rates on the long end will be one (of many) reasons for the rising inflation itself. Almost like bonds will cause themselves to increase rates, so to speak. As far as shorting bonds – a few things. I never passively short markets, I always manage short positions much more actively than a longer term position where I own it. And as to timing, any of the big rallies (in price) AND into resistance are going to be shorting opportunities, especially starting Q2 2017 and beyond. But those short positions are going to be relatively small for me vs. long positions in other markets, which will benefit from the outpouring of capital from global bond markets. So let’s wait for some of the weirdness around elections and also the European banking problems to “cause” bond prices to rally again, before starting to hone in on the timing and price levels.