Stayin’ Alive

Trader Scott’s Market Blog

The smash hit “Stayin Alive” from the prolific Bee Gees. Written by Maurice, Robin and Barry Gibb.
Short term trading is basically just about staying alive. It’s about trying to hit singles. It’s not about swinging for the fences. I became a much better baseball player when I finally figured that out. And likewise, I became a much better trader when I finally figured that out. You have a chance to score when you hit a single. Lots of good things can happen when you get on base. But you have zero chance to score when you go from the batter’s box straight back to the dugout. There’s a much lower PROBABILITY that you can hit a home run vs. hitting a single. However, obviously the rewards of hitting a home run are much greater than for hitting a single. But so are the RISKS. Keep that in mind.
Here’s a question from a reader:
Hi Scott, thanks for the article, it was quite relevant to me. Armed and dangerous after reading Volume and Price Analysis by Anna Couling I set aside some money for short term trading practice. Basically, I am I quite unsure of myself at this stage in terms of volume, price analysis. Yesterday I bought USLV(bull 3x silver) when it fell over 6% as a short term trade. After this purchase, I stumbled on your article and it made me feel somewhat better about the trade as your analysis of the silver range was somewhat similar to mine. Anna in her book noted how support and resistance are not concrete barriers but more like rubber bands. Now the hard part, when do I sell … Thanks again for the analysis….

And my answer:
More great insight from one of our readers. Julian, that’s a great description of SUPPORT and RESISTANCE (ZONES) .
And don’t fret, I’m still often unsure of myself after all of these years of experience. This is not a business of certainties. It’s actually a business of total uncertainty – it’s only about PROBABILITIES. It’s one reason that so many fail at trading – they can’t handle the omnipresence of uncertainty.
But just be aware Julian that any triple leverage ETF is for short term trading only. You should be looking for the exit, profit or loss, as soon as you get in. One of the main ways to survive as a trader is to be looking to take at least partial profits (if available) very quickly after entering – and then moving your stop up to break even for the rest of the position. And as you get better as a trader and timing markets, you should have profits very soon after entering the trade. In fact almost instantaneously.
So yes for silver currently, “they” are going to try and stretch the SUPPORT ZONE as low as they can, that’s what a “spring” is regarding markets.