Druckenmiller: “I Sold All Of My Gold On The Night Of The Election”/The Trend
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
November 10, 2016
First of all, anyone who sold gold into the grotesquely bearish upthruston Tuesday did a very good job. While I can understand someone having to cover a short position (I’m on the wrong side of things myself sometimes), but who in the world could be dumb enough to go long into that mess. So Stan Druckenmiller was one who sold all of his gold Tuesday night. He’s one of the few big money managers around whom I respect (even though he did work for the ancient mummy idiot George Soros). But long ago when I became confident in my ability to survive in this business, listening to others’ market views became a distraction. My outlook for gold is much different than Druckenmiller’s. If gold is in a bull market, which is my view, then selling waves are potentially buying opportunities. There has never been a better “method” invented than determining the trend, and if it is up, you buy into support. And you do some selling on the way up to reduce risk, among accomplishing other things. It’s that simple. Admittedly, this “simple” method took me way too long to: a) learn; b) accept; c) implement consistently and successfully; d) RESPECT.
Gold has begun to see the strong hands step back in on the buy side as noted on the chart. But the strong hands are very patient and methodical, and they don’t mind averaging down. So I am now becoming very attentive and watching support areas where we likely will see a running of sell stops. The point is now to be anticipating a set up for a major low forming this month. And here is a GDX chart with support areas coming in to focus.
In the Zero Hedge article, Druckenmiller appears to be very optimistic about an economic rebound with President Trump. I have heard that a lot the last few days and it is baffling to me. I get the optimism surrounding the infrastructure spending. But how is it going to be funded – the only possibility is via helicopters. How is that some great achievement? The inflation, derivatives mess, and higher interest rates will dwarf the short term benefits from helicopter money/infrastructure. And I also get the benefits from a lower corporate tax rate and a supposed flood of capital back to the US. But that’s all theory and proposals. Who knows what happens, for instance, when the Congress gets their grimy hands involved. And how do we know corporations will repatriate all of those supposed trillions. And the globalists will be fighting him the whole way. Our two major problems in this world are debt and derivatives. And under Trump those two problems are going to get worse, not better. I have no problem with Trump beating Clinton, but I do not share the optimistic outlook. And I certainly do not share the optimism about the recent stock market rally allegedly related to the President-elect. And lastly, why no one is talking about this is mystifying, but short term rates in the US are at eight year highs. Folks keep telling me that rates are going to stay low for as long as the CBs want them to stay low and I keep disagreeing with them – and meantime, rates just keep trudging higher. To repeat, short term interest rates in the US bottomed in 2011 – over 5 years ago. Please accept what is going on here. Supply and demand always wins, one way or another.
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.