Trader Scott’s Market Blog
November 16, 2016
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And the Trump supporters are now ignorantly and dangerously doing just that. There’s always a “reason”/excuse given after the fact as to “why” a market did this or that. First of all, who cares – how does telling me something after the fact (except for educational/experience adding purposes) help me in any way to make profits in markets. Secondly, if we’re going to now credit Trump with the “surging” stock market, are we going to blame him for a “plummeting” one. And will we blame surging inflation (next year) or 3% ten year yields (late next year) or Euro bank blow ups on Donald. Which brings me to the most important point market wise. Election outcomes do not change trends they just follow them. The trend is in place, the movement, society, economics, business, industry, politics, confidence, etc. So election outcomes are more like confirmation and corroboration rather than change. The change had long ago begun. There will be an upcoming post on this, but what this means for markets is almost a confirmation of the continued loss of confidence in the old institutions – such as central banks (CBs). This will have profound implications for the the massive global government bond market, as CBs will continue to slowly lose control of their bond markets. You can see the tremors occurring and they will just get bigger and bigger over the years. The Trump win didn’t “cause” the recent explosion higher in yields, it only magnified it. I have been doing post after post about the massive distribution area of the long term US Treasury bond (inverted) and I’ve been calling it the most important chart in the world. And the bear market in bonds will finally take hold in 2017. And this, along with the derivatives situation, is what has me truly terrified.
As for PMs, I laid out my scenario a few months ago well in advance of what’s going on now. The better entry zones in price were laid out, as well as my belief that later in November would be a re-test of the December 2015 lows (January 2016 for the miners), but at a much higher low. From those lows there was a first wave advance into the July highs, and since then we needed to go back into a re-accumulation phase to build up the energy to break thru some serious resistance areas on the charts, which have been posted repeatedly. The next up-wave in PMs, the 3rd wave, (and no I am not an Elliot Wave guy, except for very rudimentarily) will likely be accompanied by a new push lower in confidence levels in governments and CBs, possibly accompanied by Euro bank problems/Euro currency problems/US$ strength. If you’re a trader, great, there are always opportunities. But I’ve been trying to urge people – we’re closing in on an INVESTMENT area in price/time, but only to buy into weakness and below support. And it would also be super helpful if the gold permabulls would stop predicting gold would end the year at $2000. They’ve been saying that for 10 years and they won’t shut up.
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.