More US$ Shortage



Trader Scott’s Market Blog

October 16, 2016

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One important skill (a trading skill) for successful traders/investors is the ability to anticipate and thus act, as opposed to reacting (which is usually tied in with emotions, which is not a winning combination in markets). Learning how to anticipate was yet another skill which I was forced to learn to be able to survive markets. The skill of anticipation is really about confidence. Being able to anticipate when/where a market is turning (from down to up and from up to down) requires us to confidently step in to volatility when the emotion of the market (the public) is greatly heightened. So you must have a lot of confidence in your work, in your skills, and in your ability to anticipate.That ability comes from hard work, always being prepared, and then putting it into practice countless times in the crazy market environments. (And it’s those crazy market environments which are actually THE best opportunities.) Andanticipation can also be about anticipating further advancements in a TREND, hence you are not looking for big turning points. Hence you are not attempting to “pick a top” or “pick a bottom”. Because you understand that the power of the overall trend is still in force.

So with this in mind, one of the reasons for doing this blog is to share what it is which I am anticipating for my own trades/investments. And even though I do at times talk about what/why something just happened in the market, aka “news” (looking in the rear view mirror), in general that is pretty useless conversation, except for true educational value.And you can find the rear view mirror stuff just about anywhere on the internet, however it generally provides little value. But being able to anticipate can have tremendous value. So, I have been constantly writing about the US$ shortages and also on my belief that the US$ is continuing, and will continue, to be in a bull market. In other words, why I am continuing to anticipate further gains in the Dollar and no major top for a while. I have been pointing out how currency after currency is going to multi-year and even multi-decade lows against the US$ and that I anticipate the situation to intensify. And here is another example – the Egyptian Pound.While the Egyptian currency is a very minor situation, when you keep adding these up, they become quite a powerful propellant to new highs in the Dollar.

Here is the US$ chart currently – shorter term and longer term.I have been recently writing about my anticipationfor there to be an interim top for the US$ into both the resistance area (red arrow) and also the SUPPLY LINE /overbought line (green line). And so far we are seeing an interim top, which is taking pressure (short term) off of some other markets. But, it’s not until the Dollar gets to around 100.50 (red arrow longer term chart) before I wouldanticipatea bigger, but not final, top for the US$. So hopefully this type of “analysis” will be helpful for many readers to learn how to anticipate markets.

img_0074bwcrsmTrader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.

'Trader Scott’s Market Blog – More US$ Shortage – October 26, 2016' have 4 comments

  1. October 27, 2016 @ 11:14 am Dmitrii

    Hello! May I ask you question?
    This is long term monthly chart of usd/rub (russian ruble): This is weekly chart:
    I think the new highs is coming next year, I see massive bull flag. It is very interesting to know what you see at these charts. What does strong-hands do?


    • October 27, 2016 @ 11:27 am traderscott

      Yes, one of the few currencies which I am bullish on is the Ruble. There was a massive and very bullish SELLING CLIMAX in the Ruble. So, long term, I believe the lows are in. That does not mean there won’t be selling waves. But I am bullish on Russia overall and the currency should be bought into weakness. So if you think there will be new highs (meaning more selling of Rubles), I would certainly be buying into the weakness. As to what are the strong hands. I am planning a post on that soon.


      • October 28, 2016 @ 2:02 am Dmitrii

        Thank you.
        Russian’s money supply (M1) has grown for 3300% for last 16 years. USA’s money supply (M1) has grown for 300% for last 16 years. USD/RUB has changed in 2 times for this period only, from 30 rub for $1 to 62 rub for $1. It’s hard to be bullish with such a backdrop, but I guess you are right.


  2. April 6, 2017 @ 2:51 am entry points newsletter – Site Title

    […] “10/16/16 post: This is long term monthly chart of usd/rub (russian ruble): This is weekly chart: I think the new highs is coming next year, I see massive bull flag. It is very interesting to know what you see at these charts. What does strong-hands do?” […]


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