Pre-Election Weekend Dedication/Bond Market Insanity

 

 

 

Trader Scott’s Market Blog

November 6, 2016

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These weekend dedications have been focused on mocking the globalist, elitist neocons and their agenda, such as here and here. But on this pre-election weekend, it’s going to be a different kind of dedication – much more somber. And I hate to be a Debbie Downer (fun’s a lot “funner”), but the world is in trouble. I am extremely concerned. The 35 year bull market in bonds is coming to an end in total insanity. The brain scientists, or is it rocket surgeons, at the central banks (CBs) who concocted/hallucinated/unleashed negative interest rates, should be serving life imprisonment with hard labor. The CBs/governments have totally decimated the precious savers of the world (individuals and pension funds), and without savings (savers), capitalism (whatever is left of it) totally breaks down. One of the main reasons why the CBs/governments have been able to extend and pretend for so long is because there was such a vast pool of savings on this Planet. And the 35 year falling/low interest rate environment has also been a huge, huge aid to help them.But the enormous assistance from both of those are coming to an end. The netsavings pool is vanishing and is more risk averse. And the bond bull market is in a massive area of distribution/topping process (inverted). So these two major tailwinds are now set to become/are becoming monster headwinds. I see absolutely no way to avoid the problems we face on this Planet. And it would be no coincidence if at this same time, global warming, excuse me climate change, actually turns out to be global cooling instead. The world has “invested” trillions? based on their faulty, manipulative scam, pardon me, belief in “global warming” and much or most of those trillions will be totally lost. My extreme long term bullishness on agriculture does not require “climate problems”, but it is a wild card. So famine, and also even more dangerous military conflicts are distinct possibilities.

But this blog is about markets and how to (hopefully) survive them as a trader or investor. But surviving markets comes down to timing and controlling risk. If I weren’t half way decent at those, I wouldn’t be involved with markets anymore. Short term rates in the US bottomed in 2011 – meaning yields are already in a secular uptrend (prices in a downtrend). In the previous secular low in interest ratesin the 1940’s, short term rates bottomed first (1940), with long term rates staying stubbornly low for six more years. So now, with long term government bonds (prices) in a massive topping process, it’s all about “listening” to the market. I do believe bond prices have a few good rally attempts left in them – maybe a European banking crisis or a messy election outcome will be the excuse for a rally. But the end (timing) is close – it is now about anticipating.

So this weekend, I’d like to step back and say that years ago all of these concerns about the future impelled me to greatly simplify things – from where I live to how I live my life in general. Therefore, to have a much simpler outlook on/about life. This more basic approach to life should help cushion the massive problems we face going forward, thus make surviving them much “easier”. And as we approach the election and the guaranteed messy outcome, hopefully this post can get some of you who are still on the fence to consider a different approach. The following song is about having a simple outlook, and choosing (maybe) what’s really important. And the song itself is actually written very simply. It basically has only three chords in the exact same order throughout. So here is this week’s dedication.

 

Mama told me when I was young
“Come sit beside me, my only son
And listen closely to what I say
And if you do this it’ll help you some sunny day”

“Oh, take your time, don’t live too fast
Troubles will come and they will pass
You’ll find a woman and you’ll find love
And don’t forget, son, there is someone up above”

“And be a simple kind of man
Oh, be something you love and understand
Baby be a simple kind of man
Oh, won’t you do this for me, son, if you can”

“Forget your lust for the rich man’s gold
All that you need is in your soul
And you can do this, oh baby, if you try
All that I want for you, my son, is to be satisfied”

“And be a simple kind of man
Oh, be something you love and understand
Baby be a simple kind of man
Oh, won’t you do this for me, son, if you can”

Oh yes, I will

“Boy, don’t you worry, you’ll find yourself
Follow your heart and nothing else
And you can do this, oh baby, if you try
All that I want for you, my son, is to be satisfied”

“And be a simple kind of man
Oh, be something you love and understand
Baby be a simple kind of man
Oh, won’t you do this for me, son, if you can”

Baby, be a simple, be a simple man
Oh, be something you love and understand
Baby, be a simple kind of man

Written by Gary Robert Rossington, Ronnie Van Zant • Copyright © Universal Music Publishing Group

 

 

About

img_0074bwcrsmTrader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.



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