Martin Armstrong

Founder of Armstrong Economics and Author of The Cycle of War & the Coronavirus and Manipulating the World Economy

Armstrong Economics offers unique perspective intended to educate the general public and organizations on the underlying trends within the global economic and political environment. Our mission is to research historical cyclical patterns and market behavior in timing, price and crisis to better understand and identify potential future trends, using an extensive monetary database and advanced proprietary models.

What is inflation?  Deflation of purchasing power.

US dollar going up because of Ukraine.  Foreign money looking for a safer home. 

European Union still paying negative interest rates.  Having a sovereign debt crisis.

Will the Euro break up?  Debt wasn’t structured properly at its formation.

All Euro countries expect to pay the same interest rate, even though each country has different economic health.  8 years of negative interest rates.

Ukraine had 3^rd largest nuclear armaments in the world.  When Soviet Union broke up in 1991, nukes were returned to Russia, with an agreement that west would not invade Russia.

Minsk 2014 agreement that Donbas regions could vote on independence.  Zelensky didn’t comply with that.

2 factors explain Russia invasion of Ukraine.  1) At Munich Security Conference on Feb 20, we sent VP Harris, who sent Ukraine should join NATO.  2) Boris Johnson said we would reestablish nuclear weapons in Ukraine against Russia.  Russia invaded Ukraine the next day. 

Kiev was where Russia began.  Putin sentimentally attached to it, didn’t attack.  Second tier Russian officers don’t care about Kiev.

What do US neocons want?  In Clinton admin, Russia wanted to join NATO.  But neocons don’t want world peace.  They’d be out of a job.  They can’t sleep at night unless they have an enemy.

Even Kissinger said to surrender Donbas to Russia.  Crimea, Donbas, have always been Russian people.  Zelensky says he won’t yield one inch.

Saddam Hussein kept the other terrorists in check.  ISIS started after we killed him.

Every 200 years there’s revolution.  First in 1776.  After 2032, will have change again.  Next one will be against republics.

Republics historically tend to be most corrupt forms of government.  You can bribe them.

Caesar crossed the Rubicon in summer, but the calendar said it was winter.  Locals cheered Caesar and Cicero supporters fled.

Executive orders circumvent a republic and are dictatorial.  Biden knows his E.O. wouldn’t pass Congress.  Biden wants to send armaments under E.O.

In 2030 will oil be 250?

Democrats want to destroy capacity to produce fossil fuels so the Republicans can’t regenerate that capacity if they get in office.

In cabinet room, each agency is fighting for power, and the president is supposed to manage them.  Biden can’t.

Trump questioned why US troops were dying in historically conflicted Afghanistan.  He cared and wanted to withdraw, which drew enmity.

Trump’s successes were attributed to his father.  Trump wanted to be president to say this is what I’ve done. 

Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan cared, which differentiated them from other politicians.

How did Trump become president in 2016?  They were blindsided.  It was a vote against Democrats, not a vote for Trump.

What is a neocon?  Warmongers, and they’re on both sides.  Hillary Clinton, Lindsay Graham, John McCain.  They work together.  Supported by military establishment, NATO. 

Putin was selected because he was more democratic, neutral, a smart man, and against communism.  Contrary to the popular meme.

ArmstrongEconomics.com offers blog and subscription info.  Sign up.  Home to Socrates, a fully functioning artificial intelligence system, unique for its objective modeling capability.  Looks at capital flows.  A.I. generates written reports.

DAVOS is a joke.  The people are all fake.

Biden’s sanctions on Russia were brain dead.  He has destroyed the world economy;  it is splitting in half.  Russia is wealthiest nation in world for resources.  Major world wheat supplier.  Rises in energy prices means third world countries can’t feed their people.  Spread of sovereign defaults.  It’s not the invasion, it’s the US sanctions that caused the evils.  SWIFT is no longer independent, can’t be trusted, is a political tool.  China more intelligent than people understand.  Germany strongest economy in Europe, but at bottom of global list in net worth.  High taxes.  Always export oriented.  US was a consumer economy, how we got to be big.  China has looked at Germany and the US.  Realize they have to be self-sufficient, are building own consumer market. Will be largest world economy by next year. 

Paul Volcker wrong about high interest rates.  Back then, had a shortage because OPEC shock increased cost of production.  Stagflation came in then, and we’re back to it now.  Keynesian economics is failing.  It worked in 1930s because Hoover had a balanced budget.  FED manipulated the people, not the government.  Now it won’t work for the FED to raise interest rates.  Raises cost of production on everything, doesn’t stop the government from spending.  FED has no tools that work now.  Can’t prevent inflation.  FED is most independent central bank and they at least understands the problem.  Everything is falling apart.  US spent money into a deficit even when we were in a boom.

They will try CBDC.  A bait and switch.  They will never admit they are the culprit.  Say we wouldn’t have these deficits if everyone paid all their taxes.  Initially said only the rich would pay income tax, same false enticement for starting  SS tax, estate tax, property tax.  We only need taxes on a local level.  Why have federal taxes when they can just print the money? 

FDR usurped the Federal Reserve.  The FED regional banks used to have different interest rates, FDR made one interest rate for all.

Politicians are always bribing the people.  Don’t campaign on how to be a better manager, but only to solve a crisis.

Does Bitcoin survive everything?  Probably not.  If we go into war, the first thing they do is take down the power grid.

Blockchain is not private.  It’s their dream to know everyone’s financial transactions.

Will the US Treasury ever default on a bond?  At the end of the cycle.

Can’t have an asset in one currency and debt in another.

Germany has capitulated to pay Russia in rubles.

Shanghi lockdown was for financial reasons.  It’s a major port.

Destabilizing currency is a war tactic.

War will be more aggressive next year.  Us involvement in Ukraine means a good opportunity for China to take Taiwan. 

Biden only looks at climate change and not what is happening around the world.

Purpose of the European Union was to create one government and eliminate war.

Promotion of one government solutions.  UN touted to fight climate change, WHO to fight disease.

They’re not going to stop.  Biden will sign whatever they want.  Who is the real president?

US will probably split in the future along north vs. south lines.  Slavery wasn’t the bottom line issue of the Civil War – it was states’ rights.

Serfism ended in 1861 in Russia.  Serfs were property of the farm; they owned nothing.  Marxism made sense then.

Will overthrow of Roe v. Wade contribute to a future split?  Not a big enough issue.

Any hope if conservatives win in November election?  Not really.  2024 election might be a major earthquake.  Biden, Putin, Zelensky, European Parliment up for reelection.  Putin is not hard core, successors will be.