Crude Oil, The Seeds for a New Bull Market

Trader Scott’s Market Blog

October 14, 2016

We can usually count on academics to be completely wrong about markets. And while virtually every academic has a higher IQ than I do (granted, that’s not saying much), when it comes to markets smart is often dumb. The great Tom Baldwin said this about markets: “You don’t need any education at all to do it. The smarter you are the dumber you are.” So when I read articles like this one, about an academic “calling”/predicting that oil prices may (a basically useless word when used about markets) remain low for 20 years, it just continues to make me more convinced crude is in a major bottoming formation – accumulation/weak hands to strong hands. I was quite bearish on crude oil for a few years, as explained here. And although I do expect to see this bottoming process in crude to be quite extended, my belief is still that commodities put in a  long term bottom in the Spring. But, for crude oil in particular, that is in the long term time frame. But I am quite concerned about crude currently, and I do expect a retest (with a higher low) of the February 11 major low of $26 – with a time frame similar to that low, but into next year. But articles such as the previously discussed one, are sowing the seeds for a very bullish 2017 – 2020, we just need to get thru a (likely volatile) retest of the major low.