Deutsche Bank Update

 

 

 

 

Trader Scott’s Market Blog

October 9, 2016

 

 

 

Deutsche Bank has had a large rally from the recent lows. It has given the central bankers (CBs) some breathing room. They better not assume that anything has changed in theglobalbanking system. That system is a complete disaster. And with their NIRP/ZIRP policies, the absolutely brilliant PHDs at the world’s CBs have completely destroyed the already very fragile financial system. And while Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank have had some bullish intermediate term technical action this year into the lows (charts below), I do expect, at a minimum, a retest of those lows. And that is where (hopefully) I’ll be able to make a better judgement. But in general, I am not remotely bullish (intermediate term) on the world’s stock markets, and I’ve been chronicling the sectors which I am looking to short into on a “good news” based rally. It took me too long to understand that even if I’m very bearish on a market, I need to allow it plenty of room to rally first, which sets up a way, way better entry point. The financials are high on my list. Even the CBs know they blew it with their moronic experiments with ZIRP, but high IQ people have a very hard time admitting when they’re wrong (it’s why super intelligent people rally succeed in markets). So the markets will force the CBs to change their policies. And the next policy for them to fail at will be helicopter money – financing massive infrastructure spending by governments, for example. And these policies will be implemented just as the global government bond market is finally, finally getting close to being ready to begin a relentless move higher in yields. This will have massive, profound effects on all of us. Are you ready?

 

CS– DB– DB– DB

 

 

 

 

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About

img_0074bwcrsmTrader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.

 

 

'Trader Scott’s Market Blog – Deutsche Bank Update – October 9, 2016' have 6 comments

  1. October 9, 2016 @ 3:09 pm Aamer zahid

    Hi Scott,

    Great insight re when to short . issue is what do you think the end game is – what does it look like ands what time frame ? If bond mkts start falling apart even in slow motion , we see sovereign defaults etc so am curious to see how you see this game either going on or unraveling.

    If govts issue perp. Bond s maybe they can prolong the game for another 10 – 15 yrs ?

    I just can’t see the system collapsing as central banks, banks, auditors, investors, pension funds etc will do what it takes to prevent the system from falling apart. I don’t believe in their abilities as saviours but the level of corruption in the system incl the investors and general public is so great that this system could continue.

    Thanks ,

    Aamer

    • October 9, 2016 @ 3:29 pm traderscott

      Good questions Aamer. I don’t know what the endgame is, but I know it’s going to be very ugly for all of us. I’m trying to do my minuscule part to get people to learn how markets actually operate, so to be better prepared. And of course the idiots in government and central banks will continue with their lunacy. Yes perpetual bonds will be tried. But in the end, I believe in the market and when the tsunami of capital begins leaving the govt. bonds, there is nothing they can do to stop it, only slow it down.

      • October 9, 2016 @ 5:43 pm Aamer zahid

        Thank you. It might be a useful exercise to put together a endgame portfolio or strategy with what if scenarios etc we know that bond mkts will implode at some point….but not sure what would be true safe havens. Don’t buy the farm land, real estate answer as these are non mobile assets which can be taxed and eventually confiscated….

        I guess this is a exercise that is fun with many participant input…..something to perhaps throw out there to a wider audience ?

        Best,

        Aamer

        • October 10, 2016 @ 10:38 am traderscott

          Good idea Aamer. I wrote it on my list of to-dos.

  2. November 13, 2016 @ 4:40 am MQB

    Great Post Scott

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