Gold Confusion
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
September 28, 2016
I need to clear up some real confusion. I know my writing at times takes some decoding/deciphering by readers. I’m trying to keep improving at that. So as to the recent GDX charts, or any charts for that matter, I give the SUPPORT and RESISTANCE zones which I am watching for my entry points into markets. But that does NOT mean I am making a “prediction”/call where the market is going. I have zero “predicting” abilities. I have no control over where the market is going. I only have control over where/when I enter/exit a market. And specifically for GDX, I am not saying that it’s going to either $24.75 or $21.85. What I am saying is that I will not be interested in buying GDX, either for a longer term trade or for an investment, unless they trade below those prices. And no I am not selling GDX, nor am I short. I believe PMs are in a massive bull market and I am not going to get cute with my position. I’d like to add on. That does not mean that the OPPORTUNITY which I have prepared for will actually take place. In a bull market, it’s very easy to sell, but not nearly as easy to buy/add on. In a bull market which has shown no evidence of ENDING ACTION (which PMs have not), our main focus should be into being patient and waiting for OUR opportunities to buy into SUPPORT areas. Those opportunities may never arise. And for those with little or no PMs, you should use the higher levels of SUPPORT to buy, or any price weakness for that matter. Just be aware that’s not my approach to markets, but I understand why someone would use that approach. But these later stages of the big ACCUMULATION area are when/where you want to be buying. Once the bull market is in full force, it will be exceedingly difficult to buy.
And presently the PMs are in long term, intermediate term and short term ACCUMULATION. Just be prepared to buy when there’s at least some fear in the market. Attached is a very short term chart of GDX showing the ACCUMULATION taking place. Short term, for those who ask me, shows ENDING ACTION, with quality buying appearing into the last three pushes down near the bottom of the selling wave.
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About
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.
'Trader Scott’s Market Blog – Gold Confusion – September 28, 2016' have 8 comments
September 28, 2016 @ 2:38 pm Katherine
Scott – I am a new subscriber to your updates. In the past few days as I read your posts I am beginning to understand your method of trading. Ironically, I think the same way as you do – especially about Gold. I traded Gold during the last bull run up to $1923 & have an innate feel for trading Gold. As you say, it is when you enter the market. I also have “investment” positions in Gold that I will not sell. I am also waiting to add to positions. Gold is in a Bull market yet it is not ready for prime time. Right now all markets are confused with all of the elections & the rumblings in Europe. I am watching $USD, $XEU, $INDU, $GOLD & TBT. Keep posting!!
September 28, 2016 @ 6:55 pm traderscott
Right Katherine. We’re still in the latter stages of ACCUMULATION in the PMs. There is still going to be erratic trading in PMs. As you know, that helps to keep the public on the sidelines. They only like to buy when there’s “smooth Sailing ahead”. The big turning points and the re-accumulation areas are the highest probability/lowest risk areas to enter, but just about everyone is too scared there, except for the strong hands.
September 28, 2016 @ 5:51 pm Aamer zahid
Hi Scott,
Great pieces today. Just a quick question – can you clarify the comment on three pushes down ….is this a typical pattern or just something that happened at the last low in 2016 ? Also the chart you have shows a similar pattern now with 2 pushes…..
Thanks,
Aamer
September 28, 2016 @ 10:03 pm traderscott
OK. It’s ending action Aamer. That three pushes down is common into a tradeable low – it is short term accumulation. It’s building the energy to have a quick burst higher. And it’s usually into a SUPPORT area. If you go thru lots of charts, you will find many examples. I will continue this reply.
September 28, 2016 @ 5:55 pm Aamer zahid
Hi again,
Do you buy individual gold mining companies ? Or only GDX, GDXJ etfs for your exposure to the sector ?
Thanks,
Aamer
September 28, 2016 @ 6:48 pm traderscott
Yes, I have two which I mentioned in Monday’s interview. I hesitate to give individual names Aamer. E-mail me, if you want those names.
September 29, 2016 @ 12:16 pm David
Can you please elaborate more on the the criteria you use for determining the support and resistance areas.
October 1, 2016 @ 10:30 am traderscott
David, I’ve been trying to figure out how to do that particular post. There have been lots of questions about it. Soon.