Gold and the Entry Point, Not the Outcome

Trader Scott’s Market Blog

October 18, 2016

Like many thing in markets, it took me way too long to figure this one out also, namely – it’s the entry point, not the outcome: The approach to markets taken by most people will put us way behind before we even get started – like putting a 50 pound weight belt on an Olympic sprinter and expecting him/her to overcome it. So many of us have an approach to markets which is totally focused on the (eventual) outcome. But the eventual outcome (often many years down the road) is fraught with much uncertainty, is unlikely for many people to be anywhere near accurate, and even if we were to get close to being accurate, markets don’t ever get “there” in a straight line anyways – they zig and zag, sometimes violently. So by only focusing on that outcome, on the way there we will miss some fantastic profit taking opportunities. And most people don’t even factor into the equation, what if they’re wrong about their whole thesis to begin with. And lastly, we have zero control over the outcome anyways – zero. So wouldn’t it make much more sense to put most of our focus into getting really, really good at the one thing in markets over which we have virtually total control – the entry and the exit.
And that then brings us to a much better approach – spending way less time on something we have no control over, and way more time on something we have almost total control over – the great entry point. This is a fairly long and complex issue, so the best way to explain it is to just keep rolling it out over time and hopefully I’ll be able to make it make sense.

As to PMs: Last week’s gold update said this: “So for now, PMs should be a good trading market, but at a bare minimum, I would expect a test of last Friday’s low of $1243. However, the much better opportunity would be under $1200 (preferably $1191).” And there now has been a retest of the $1243 low and I do believe this bounce in gold still has some more legs, but the overall outlook remains the same. And in the next couple of weeks we’ll judge whether there is another set up for a shorter term shorting opportunity. But for now, on a short term basis, we’re closing in on a RESISTANCE zone at around $1268. And in the big picture, I’ve been posting the same charts for the PMs for the last couple of months. For gold specifically here and here are longer term charts showing the entry points I have been waiting for. For several months, I kept repeating that for those with little/no gold, below $1252 is a point where you should step up and begin some buying. But for those with plenty of gold, below $1252 is a good short term trading zone to buy and/or a place to do some nibbling. In a bull market, I want to buy into a “broken support” area. Some entry points are much better than others. But in a bull market, we often do not get those better entry points. So as I explained in this post, I took my own advice and did a little nibbling on physical gold and also did an ETF trade. But I believe next month will be a much better long term buying opportunity. And the short term trading chart of GDX is here. There are also the intermediate and longer term charts which are annotated and generally follow along the same lines as gold. And lastly there is an annotated silver chart with entry points marked off.

About

img_0074bwcrsmTrader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.

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