'Trader Scott’s Market Blog – Housing Market and the Insiders – January 26, 2017' have 19 comments

1. 

   January 26, 2017 @ 10:59 pm Easy Al

   I do not know if Mr. Trump really wants to “Drain The Swamp”. If he really wants, it is important that he has a realistic strategy. After all, he ran his campaign on anti-establishment platform and his inaugural speech appeared to suggest that he will do so . Naturally, the establishment and many sections of deep state hates him and will continue to fight him. A good way for Mr. Trump to achieve his goal is to divide the establishment and deep state and to align or use some sectors to fight the others. It seems me that he is trying to align with military (not necessarily with the industry part of the complex) and Wall Street. His first important goal appears to reverse the trend of globalization and get some manufacture plants and jobs back to the US. The generals who supports Mr. Trump must have been aware that the huge cost over-runs in many Pentagon’s weapon programs are not solely due to corruption alone. The frequent break-down of new littoral war ships and Zumwalt destroyer in the past few years probably suggests the needs of having some manufacture plants back in the US.

   The establishment in power for the past 16 years are so arrogant in believing the US being an exceptional country that they completely forgot divide and conquer. They pushed Russia in Eastern Europe and China in Southeast Asia at the same time. The consequences is that Russia and China now have formed an informal alliance that is built on each country’s vital national interest. The establishment, most of which them from Ivy League, managed to achieve it when the relative power of US has been declining. Is there any wonder that Mr. Putin, who had much weaker hands than Mr. Obama, seemed to have consistently out-smarted Mr. Obama ? It appears that Mr. Trump is trying to have a better relation with Russia to weaken China-Russia alliance. I do not know how successful he will be. But it seems to me that he has a better approach than the establishment and he is using similar strategy domestically.

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     January 27, 2017 @ 1:29 am traderscott

     Very well thought out, and yes he has alot of issues to deal with. He has some good ideas, but there is too much hopium in the air, and lots of room for disappointment.

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       January 27, 2017 @ 6:35 pm Easy Al

       Mr. Trump gets very big ego (egomania ?). In less than two months, the current bull market in Dow and S&P will be 8 years old. The current economic expansion, which is the third longest in the history of the US, will be 8 year long in June. During the primary, Mr. Trump accused the Yellen Fed of intentionally holding the interest rate very low to help Democratic and Hillary Clinton. He also mentioned that the stock market was a bubble and people should get out of it. If Mr. Trump really believed that the time, the bubble is much bigger now. What really puzzled me is that he took the credit for the market going up since his election just after the Christmas and celebrated Dow 20 K a few days ago, both on Twitter. Guess what ? If he is taking credit for market going up now, it will only be fair for him to take blame for the market going down. If he wants the second term, it will be to his advantage to have the recession taken place in his first year. When it happens, the main stream media, who really dislike him, will display the image of his Twitter messages again and again. Just like the boast of grabbing female’s pus** many years ago, it is very difficult for him to resist boasting stocks going up.

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         January 27, 2017 @ 6:54 pm traderscott

         Totally agree EA. The clowns “Trumpeting” the bull market because of Trump. Are you kidding me? The secular bottom was on 3/9/2009. How in the world is this because of Trump? It’s mind boggling. And so how are the same people crediting Trump for “his” bull market, they never once gave Obama credit for “his” fantastic uptrend in stocks. I was fully long US stocks for 6 1/2 years, and never once credited Obama for putting money in my pocket. And you’re absolutely correct. Whom are the Trump people going to blame in the next stock selloff. Markets go up and down, there will be a selloff during Trump-time. It’s just Mother Nature. How out of hand it gets, we’ll see. I completely disagreed with Trump when he claimed stocks were supposedly a bubble, and completely disagree with him now taking credit now. And by what kind of logic is it that stocks were a bubble when they were lower, but now they’re higher and everything is great. What the heck is that?

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         January 28, 2017 @ 1:56 am Larry

         There are three guesses I have as to why he does the things he does:
         1. Having grown up in New York and being in the business that he is in, he has had to grease many a political hacks skids in order to get what he wants so he know what type of whores they really are and really has no respect for them;
         2. He has learned long ago that you have to smash mouth when bullys like the establishment media and elitist punks bad mouth you or else they walk all over you;
         3. He’s not the smartest bulb in the string of know-it-all smart-ass Haaa-vid lawyers but he’s smart enough to listen to people and surround himself with people who are while probably having read Sun Tzu a hundred times having highlighted “All warfare is based on deception”, “Know thyself, know thy enemy”.

         All I know is this rude, crude, orange dude kicked some serious ass. I mean, ya gotta really appreciate the fact that he is still spinning their enlarged heads. Like I tell my son, “This is gonna get really interesting”.

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     January 27, 2017 @ 8:00 am David V

     For those who missed it, there’s a good article on Market Slant about the duel citizen Goldman boys befriend by trump.
     https://www.marketslant.com/articles/swamp-adds-6-goldman-appointees-heres-why

2. 

   January 27, 2017 @ 4:29 am Q

   Yeah I agree with both of you gents. Trump’s drain the swamp was I think a message to the longstanding deep state and establishment that things were going to get shook up. Also it was fodder for the masses, which is heartening. There will always be a deep state but at least it’s being reengineered. Also the traditional Anglo American Establishment is being rebooted. Welcome to the new multipolar world and the SDR. As Scott says Debt Is Money. Money is loaned into existence via mortgages and loans. Banks do not pair up depositors and borrowers. Derivatives have changed the already rigged game. I think Trump is a reengineered elites olive branch to the sheeple. Hope so any way. Won’t be pretty though.

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     January 27, 2017 @ 8:49 am traderscott

     It was actually an easy vote for me Q, as his opponent was the most evil monster probably to have ever run for the Presidency. It was just awesome to watch the twisting that the “caring” liberals had to go thru to vote for her. So now we’re stuck with him.

3. 

   January 27, 2017 @ 5:36 am Aamer

   Hi scott,

   Still wondering why people believe in Trump as a vehicle for change . Who financed Trump……Don’t get me wrong….I am not a democrat nor a supporter of Clinton. But when a cabinet of billionaires , bankers and oil men …and of course military men now occupy the cabinet….we are expecting them to understand the common man and his problems ? These men have suddenly discovered the US constitution, American values and the desire to serve their fellow citizens ? However, their past actions or inaction spreaks for itself.

   The US cannot produce anyone not out of JPM or GS to advise on economic matters ? The same people are in the corridors of power today as it was 30 yrs ago….Henry Kissinger etc it’s funny he advises trump and Putin, Nixon …brezinski was advising Obama, Carter , Clinton. Can someone explain the difference in thinking of these two men ? They are bringing change….????

   Every day brings more proof that Trump is the set up guy to crash the system.

   Another illusion is that he ‘ beat’ the deep state …..just like Obama beat the system….and before him Jimmey Carter. The matrix we live in produces a specific candidate that appeals to us at a time in point…..some cosmetic changes occur to satisfy a few voters etc but the overall picture never changes.

   This is a con outright and trump supporters will have their story ready in 4 yrs time to justify why Trump failed to change the system….just like Obama supporters now etc

   The only solution is to bypass the political system and become independent of it. Like you I am a libertarian at heart – both socially and economically speaking. This requires a completely different state of mind than what is currently prevailing.

   As ‘proof’ of what I am saying – the Supreme Court will never reverse Roe vs Wade. No matter if the president is conservative or democrat, Christian or atheist….liberal or conservative…..etc I use this as simply an example of the system running itself. The issue is not abortion itself but rather how the system works. Republicans appeal to the Christian voting bloc to get elected, the democrats do the same with their supporters…..and yet it’s been over 40 years that nothing has changed. The same can be said of the military….foreign policy. Again find it funny that Trump in the campaign run up said that he was not interested in the ME and did not want to get involved….and yet there is talk of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem…actions that will certainly not be creating any new friends in the area ! Will US bases around the world close down ? Will the CIA activities be curtailed ? Will bankers go to jail ? Will the clintons go to jail ? Will whistle blowers be encouraged ? Will we find out who killed JFK….or more importantly JR from the tv series Dallas ?

   Have a great weekend,

   Aamer

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     January 27, 2017 @ 8:43 am traderscott

     And Trump is not remotely libertarian. So expecting him to do things geared towards freedom is not going to happen. He loves the government, but just his type.

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     January 27, 2017 @ 4:26 pm Q

     Aamer I think what was different this time was the open hostility from most of the mainstream media and some of the deep state towards DJT. You might say all part of the game but I would suggest feline and watersports related themes for example would be somewhat of a gamble unless, as many suggest, that TPTB don’t really care who wins as they control both parties. However, why continue to attack him when he gets in; unless I suppose again you might say they want him to look bad/worse when the proverbial hits the fan, which again may all be part of the plan, and then blame the ignorant masses who voted him in. However, in my opinion, the demonisation of Trump vs the undemonisation of HRC could easily have backfired if the masses had been asleep. Again, unless the end and the means were all part of the game we know as democracy. My suspicion is this time it’s different. Not because DJT is Ron Paul though. Alas. As I’ve said before in my and others’ opinions Trump is the pathway TPTB have chosen to escape from the debt and derivatives nightmare they have created. HRC would have been the nuclear option so to speak. Ron Paul could probably have saved all of us. But, still Trump might turn out to be ok you know…

4. 

   January 27, 2017 @ 9:01 am traderscott

   To watch pure support and resistance in action, just pull up an intraday $ chart, like this one. There’s the gap being filled at 100.70 – the resistance area. And the bigger resistance at 101.70, and even bigger resistance at 103.60ish, with the range at the highs with the series of resistance areas, and the places to cover shorts on the breaks, if you’re a short term trader. Or if you had a belief in a bigger top, just cover some into the breaks and keep some short, and short more back into resistance. And the support area formed off the sell stop runs below 100.30. And when it broke below 100.00. And the selling climax at 99.83 and the retest. But always keeping in mind what is going on in the bigger sense, which is in my mind a reaccumulation to break thru 103.50. The support at 99.40 is sticking out like a sore thumb. There are alot of ways of doing this business, but the TREND, SUPPORT/RESISTANCE, and ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION are powerful tools certainly. It’s just about getting our own time frames in order, and not letting ourselves veer from that timeframe. Because it then becomes very confusing.

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     January 27, 2017 @ 9:25 am traderscott

     As for PMs, the bigger backups continue to be buys all thru this first quarter, as I laid out last month. Silver is continuing to do good work to break thru 17.30. That area will still see battling, but it will eventually get thru. And once again in gold, the sell stop runs, followed by the bounces are in full force. Hedge funds, etc. getting taken out, and then the bounce. But each break of support continuing to build the bearishness, to reset the sentiment, which wasn’t that bad at the $1220 resistance anyway. So we had the sell stops at 1210, 1206, 1200 of course, 1195 which set up 1192 as support, then 1187 and the bounce of course. And now the most re-accumulation since the break from the highs. This is building bearishness, and that’s good. if you believe the overall trend is up, as I do, the the real big breaks are potential buys, but we can’t let recency bias and extrapolation cloud our view. It’s scary to buy into the big selloffs, but it’s the only way I know how to do this business. And even if we’re wrong about the big overall trend, buying into the scary selloffs can still work, with taking some profits along the way. But my view is still just retesting of the secular low of December 2015.

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       January 27, 2017 @ 11:36 am David V

       Was that the miners front running the huge short covering in silver this morning?

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         January 27, 2017 @ 12:30 pm traderscott

         And right back to resistance in silver. I sold an overnight trade bought into the gap fill yesterday in FCX when it traded back into resistance – just a pure trade. But a bigger backup in FCX would be a potential position trade in copper. And hopefully later today I can finally post the screen capture video – will do the FCX trade.

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           January 27, 2017 @ 1:40 pm Easy Al

           Scott,

           Since you are talking about FCX, what you think of NSU, a small/medium zinc/copper miner ? In 2016, NSU produced 55.8 million pound of supergene copper ( with cash costs of $1.03 per pound sold). It also had 90 million pounds produced from primary ore and 90,000 Oz gold (equivalent) monetized from stockpiles. It recently ran into a problem with the copper flotation circuit (in separating Zn from Cu) at its Bisha mine. It probably will take one more quarter to solve the problem.

           NSU does not have any debt and has a dividend yield of about 5%. I do not have any position on NSU yet.

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           January 27, 2017 @ 2:17 pm traderscott

           Here is a company PR and here is a price chart. It;s interesting that it held up fairly well in the commodity bear into late 2015. Compare it to what happened to FCX. Here is the pure short term trading range I was using today in FCX. I don’t know NSU well enough, but good homework for the weekend. The thing with me is for a position trade, I really want to buy some kind of a panicky situation. So entering the copper/base metal stocks position wise is not there. There should be something in this first quarter for alot of these, possibly with an equity panic, or with Trump screwing up. But NSU is one to look into.

5. 

   January 27, 2017 @ 10:05 am traderscott

   Of all the single banks in the world for its’ ability to cause disruption is not DB or others, but I continue to believe it’s Credit Suisse – here are the European traded shares.

6. 

   January 27, 2017 @ 1:37 pm Jon

   Silver getting squeezed hard today. Engulfing weekly red candle for gold so probably more selling next week into FOMC and Friday jobs idiocy…