Intraday Markets Day 1
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
January 3, 2017
So there we go, first trading day and alot of volatility right off of the bat. Some markets going to new highs and having big selloffs, others going to multi-week highs, and others backing up to test opening gaps and then rallying strongly. First, the US$ went to a new 14 year high above resistance, and fell right back into the range (upthrust). While the Euro went to a new multi-year low, below support and rallied right back (spring). Crude oil is testing the bottom of the trading range from where it started its’ July 2015 downtrend. And it too had an intraday upthrust. Bonds started the year off weak, but they also did a reversal, and yields went to multi-week lows. Here is the bond ETF price chart. The stock market has had a volatile first day. One of my favorite indexes to do very short term trading is the QQQ. I have no position currently. The QQQ had some short term accumulation come in Friday afternoon (arrow). And this is one (all the stock indices did this today) which gapped up and retested the gap. Then it went right to Friday’s resistance high and promptly sold off right back to today’s lows. And here’s a bigger picture view. Goldman Sachs has pretty much been the leading stock in the “Trump Bull Market” (which started on March 6, 2009). It’s a stock to keep watch of, once again a reversal from the highs. As to PMs, another retest of the opening gap this morning for a very short term entry point. The GDX shows the setup, and any of the leveraged ETFs, even shorting DUST, can be a good way to trade these setups. And as per usual, I took profits way too early. (Comments section from previous post.) And lastly gold and silverwith resistance and support areas. The previous post dealt with the relationship between gold and the US$, and how there is not a 1:1 relationship – how one bottoms/tops before the other. Today the US$ went to a new 14 year high, yet gold was nowhere near its’ 12/15 low. Backups are still for accumulating.
About
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.
'Trader Scott’s Market Blog – Intraday Markets Day 1 – January 3, 2017' have 9 comments
January 3, 2017 @ 4:35 pm Q
Ok let me try not to look silly, again. When I look at the Goldman chart looks to me if it is currently undergoing a topping type process. Today looks like there was quite a lot of volume but it couldn’t push higher out of the resistance area. So the supply is there but looking like it’s going to come down sometime soon. Or am I totally wrong, again. ;-) ps I know I’m not supposed to think about it too much or get too emotional but given that US financials are supposed to be and are it seems doing so great, yet they are fairly interconnected with Deutsche, Unicredit and various Euro banks, surely they’re not going to the moon even if the Dow perhaps is?!?
January 3, 2017 @ 5:10 pm traderscott
Q it sounds like you’ve been reading Wyckoff stuff – good. The problem with Wyckoff, or any method, is taking it from the written word, so to speak, and implementing it into an actual trade. It’s really only the implementation that matters. The method is just a road map. But learning a sound method is still very important – we all need an edge, and not just wing it. To make things “simpler” the resistance and support areas are drawn in. This is a good trading stock, as an investment I wouldn’t get near it. I do believe the trend is still up. You shouldn’t get concerned about being wrong (or right), we’re just talking about analyzing a situation here. Your analysis may be correct. Where/when we need to be right is when our money is on the line. If you’re level of confidence isn’t high, just avoid that trade/investment, and wait for the great setup. But currently GS is just in a trading range. Today’s high was a potential shorting/selling opportunity for someone. I did not trade it today. And yes, the international banks are all intertwined, but it doesn’t matter until it does – and it will. Credit Suisse is the one I’m concerned about – not too many seem concerned about that one.
January 3, 2017 @ 5:24 pm Q
Cool Great Stuff. Feeling like less of a trading monkey. Yeah Wyckoff Is Cool. Like u he was a half trader half philosopher ;-) Hello to Scott’s gang. Q
January 3, 2017 @ 5:27 pm Q
Ps ‘it doesn’t matter ’till it does.. and it will’. Exactly. Life…
January 3, 2017 @ 5:48 pm Q
Btw the half trader half philosopher thing was meant to be a compliment. Just like I consider myself half medical half philosophical. Looks like I need practice writing as well as trading :-(
January 4, 2017 @ 9:40 am traderscott
Of course Q.
January 4, 2017 @ 1:54 pm traderscott
There is another stupid Fed minutes release soon. There is also the “employment” number out on Friday. Whatever “they” decide to do with PMS around these releases, on a bigger picture I continue to want to buy backups in PMs, but only into a good setup.
January 4, 2017 @ 6:01 pm Jon
Interesting action in the miners today. Lot’s of whipsaw with a surge into the close (with the metals flat). Seem’s they want to keep- a- going. Still lots of unfilled gaps…
January 4, 2017 @ 6:17 pm traderscott
Yes Jon – day trades on both sides today in JNUG, etc. – it basically did a big round trip, tho not quite back all the way to the lows. And I know you’re watching the gaps.